Fixed Odds Betting Analysis

Ipswich @
Aston Villa
Match Date: 2025-02-15
Start Time: 15:00:00
English Premier League fixed odds sports betting category logo in square format for Miydi Sports Betting

Projected Winner

Aston Villa

The projected winner is based on the same team performance data used to set the match odds. 

Win or draw

Match Outcome Predictions

Who AI Thinks will win

Based on the team data coming from the bookmakers themselves

This is how the AI sees the likely outcome of the match based on the most current team performance data. 

Aston Villa (Home) Victory Chance

50%

Aston Villa (Home) Projected Goal Handicap

-2.5


Match Draw Chance

50%

Ipswich (Away) Victory Chance

0%

Ipswich (Away) Projected Goal Handicap

-1.5

Optimal Betting Scenarios

Scenario One

Aston Villa-Ipswich Draw at Villa Park

Match Winner Draw

47.5

HT/FT Double Draw/Draw

75.0

Result Total Goals Draw Over 2.5

130.0

Both Teams Score Yes

16.7

Handicap Result Draw -1

37.5

Scenario Payout

$306.7

Scenario Two

Aston Villa narrow victory over Ipswich

Match Winner Home

14.5

HT/FT Double Home/Home

22.5

Handicap Result Home -1

22.0

Total Goals Over 2.5

15.3

Win By One Goal

37.5

Scenario Payout

$111.8

Scenario Three

Aston Villa dominates Ipswich at Villa Park

Asian Handicap Home -1.25

20.7

Win Both Halves Home

35.0

Total Home Goals Over 2.5

23.8

Total Goals Over 3.5

23.0

Handicap Home -2

33.0

Scenario Payout

$135.5

Scenario Four

Ipswich edges Aston Villa at Villa Park

Match Winner Away

62.5

Win Either Half Away

32.5

Double Chance Draw Away

26.2

Total Away Goals Over 1.5

35.0

Asian Handicap Away +0.5

57.5

Scenario Payout

$213.7

Scenario Five

Ipswich dominates Aston Villa at Villa Park

Asian Handicap Away -1.25

18.6

Total Away Goals Over 2.5

110.0

Win Both Halves Away

230.0

Handicap Away -1

135.0

Total Goals Over 4.5

40.0

Scenario Payout

$533.6

Scenario Six

Unexpected outcome at Villa Park

HT/FT Double Away/Away

110.0

Total Goals Over 6.5

150.0

Goals Over/Under Over 7.5

290.0

Handicap Result Home +4

80.0

Total Away Goals Over 3.5

290.0

Scenario Payout

$920.0

Home

How the Teams Match Up

Away

89%

Recent Team Momentum

What this means

This rating reflects how well a team has performed in its most recent matches. It considers results such as wins, draws, and losses, as well as the strength of the opponents faced. A higher percentage indicates strong recent form, meaning the team has been consistently performing well, while a lower percentage suggests struggles, inconsistency, or poor results.

How to interpret relative differences:

  • If one team has a significantly higher rating than the other, it suggests they are coming into the match with better confidence, rhythm, and possibly stronger overall gameplay.
  • A close rating between the two teams suggests similar recent form, meaning past results may not be a strong indicator of who has the upper hand.
  • A large gap in ratings (e.g., one team having double or more the percentage of the other) indicates a clear momentum advantage for the higher-rated team, which could impact the outcome.
11%
60%

Attacking Strength Rating

What this means

This percentage evaluates a team’s ability to create and convert scoring opportunities. It takes into account factors such as goals scored, shot accuracy, key passes, and the number of chances created. A higher rating suggests a more effective attack that is likely to generate goal-scoring opportunities, while a lower rating indicates struggles in breaking down defenses or finishing chances.

How to interpret relative differences:

  • If both teams have similar attacking ratings, it suggests the match could be evenly contested in terms of goal-scoring chances.
  • If one team has a significantly higher attacking rating, they are likely to be more aggressive, generate more shots, and pose a greater goal threat.
  • A very large gap (e.g., one team having nearly twice the rating of the other) suggests the weaker team may struggle to create meaningful scoring opportunities, making it harder for them to win if they fall behind.
40%
73%

Defensive Stability Rating

What this means

This rating measures how well a team prevents opponents from scoring. It factors in goals conceded, clean sheets, successful tackles, and defensive organization. A high rating indicates a solid and structured defense that is difficult to break down, while a low rating suggests vulnerability, defensive errors, or frequent concessions of goals.

How to interpret relative differences:

  • If both teams have high defensive ratings, the match is likely to be tight, with fewer scoring opportunities.
  • A significant difference in ratings suggests that one team is more likely to keep a clean sheet or resist attacking pressure effectively.
  • A very large gap (e.g., one team having a defensive rating nearly three times the other) indicates the weaker defense may struggle to contain attacks and could concede multiple goals, especially against a strong attacking opponent.
27%
75.2%

Overall Team Strength Rating

What this means

This metric combines various performance factors, including recent form, attacking effectiveness, and defensive solidity, into a single percentage that represents a team’s overall strength. A higher rating suggests a well-balanced, in-form team that is more likely to control the game, while a lower rating suggests weaknesses across multiple areas.

How to interpret relative differences:

  • If both teams have similar overall ratings, the match could be highly competitive, with no clear favorite.
  • If one team has a moderately higher rating, it suggests they have an edge but may still face challenges depending on specific game conditions.
  • A very large gap in ratings suggests a strong favorite and a likely underdog, with the lower-rated team needing to perform exceptionally well to compensate for their disadvantages.
24.8%

Head to Head Results

Score

Home

Away

Score

2
Ipswich
2024-09-29
Aston Villa
2
2
Aston Villa
2019-01-26
Ipswich
1
1
Ipswich
2018-08-18
Aston Villa
1
nil
Ipswich
2018-04-21
Aston Villa
4
2
Aston Villa
2017-11-25
Ipswich
nil
nil
Aston Villa
2017-02-11
Ipswich
1

How we pick these bets

We used fixed odds analysis to look for opportunities in the match odds. We evaluate the most likely scenarios and then create the bundles of bets that produce the most opportunity. We hedge the risk and produce consistent returns.

Scenario one

Aston Villa-Ipswich Draw at Villa Park
Likely match ends level with shared points.
EPL draws ~19% occurrences

Bet Components:

Match Winner Draw
47.5
HT/FT Double Draw/Draw
75.0
Result Total Goals Draw Over 2.5
130.0
Both Teams Score Yes
16.7
Handicap Result Draw -1
37.5
This bet will pay $306.7 with a $10 wager.
Breakeven Ratio: 1-30
English Premier League fixed odds sports betting category logo in landscape format 2 for Miydi Sports Betting

Scenario two

Aston Villa narrow victory over Ipswich
Home side wins by one goal margin.
Narrow home wins ~40% in EPL

Bet Components:

Match Winner Home
14.5
HT/FT Double Home/Home
22.5
Handicap Result Home -1
22.0
Total Goals Over 2.5
15.3
Win By One Goal
37.5
This bet will pay $111.8 with a $10 wager.
Breakeven Ratio: 1-11

Scenario three

Aston Villa dominates Ipswich at Villa Park
Home team wins comfortably by wide margin.
Dominant home wins ~14% in EPL

Bet Components:

Asian Handicap Home -1.25
20.7
HT/FT Double Home/Home
35.0
Total Home Goals Over 2.5
23.8
Total Goals Over 3.5
23.0
Handicap Home -2
33.0
This bet will pay $135.5 with a $10 wager.
Breakeven Ratio: 1-13

Scenario four

Ipswich edges Aston Villa at Villa Park
Visiting team pulls off a tight victory.
Narrow away wins ~25% in EPL

Bet Components:

Match Winner Away
62.5
Win Either Half Away
32.5
Double Chance Draw Away
26.2
Total Away Goals Over 1.5
35.0
Asian Handicap Away +0.5
57.5
This bet will pay $213.7 with a $10 wager.
Breakeven Ratio: 1-21
English Premier League fixed odds sports betting category logo in landscape format 1 for Miydi Sports Betting

Scenario five

Ipswich dominates Aston Villa at Villa Park
Visitors triumph with a comprehensive win.
Dominant away wins ~5% in EPL

Bet Components:

Asian Handicap Away -1.25
18.6
Total Away Goals Over 2.5
110.0
Win Both Halves Away
230.0
Handicap Away -1
135.0
Total Goals Over 4.5
40.0
This bet will pay $533.6 with a $10 wager.
Breakeven Ratio: 1-53

Scenario six

Safety first approach for Villa Park match
Hedge bets for minimal risk in outcome variance.
Safety strategies ~70% in EPL games

Bet Components:

Double Chance Home or Draw
11.2
Both Teams To Score No
21.0
Total Goals Under 4.5
12.4
Handicap Result Away +2
34.0
Double Chance Home or Away
11.8
This bet will pay $90.4 with a $10 wager.
Breakeven Ratio: 1-9

Scenario seven

Unexpected outcome at Villa Park
Aston Villa or Ipswich crazy scoreline expected.
Rare outcomes ~1% in EPL games

Bet Components:

HT/FT Double Away/Away
110.0
Total Goals Over 6.5
150.0
Goals Over/Under Over 7.5
290.0
Handicap Result Home +4
80.0
Total Away Goals Over 3.5
290.0
This bet will pay $920.0 with a $10 wager.
Breakeven Ratio: 1-92

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Matches

More EPL Betting Analysis

New match analysis is added daily.

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